There is a good deal of cash to be obtained this week on DraftKings including a top prize of $30k from the primary tournament. I will be going heavier than normal this week chasing the significant GPP prizes, and that I will play less cash games than normal. This is actually the first time we have observed a 30k top prize, therefore I believe it’s well worth chasing in the event that you have the bankroll for it.
We did lose the co-main occasion with Max Holloway pulling from this fight against Brian Ortega, thus we’re now down to 11 fights and we should observe a great deal of ties with this card with all the popular lineups. If you are chasing that $30K then you’ll want to attempt to be a little different with your lineup so that you can separate yourself from the rest of the area. With that said, let us get into a few plays I enjoy as well as my fade of the week.
Cash Game play of the week — Paul Felder ($7,400)
The DK pricing with this fight is way off from the betting line. On DK, Felder is 1,400 less than his opponent, Mike Perry. On the gambling line, Felder is the -150 favorite. That’s just too much line value to pass in cash games and that makes Felder the”free square” this week. Even when he loses this fight, he should be highly owned it won’t even hurt your lineup in money games. In GPP’s, Felder will be among the greatest owned fighters on the card and when he loses there then it may kill your lineup, so maybe think about avoiding the chalk there in the event that you can. However, with that crazy line value we are getting here, Paul Felder is the easy choice for the cash game play of this week.
GPP play of this week — Mike Perry ($8,800)
Ok, I know this sounds a bit weird because I literally just chose Paul Felder as my cash play of this week, but hear me out. In cash games, we don’t care about ownership. If Felder is 90% owned in cash games, then it doesn’t damage your lineup since only 10 percent of lineups didn’t possess him and you merely need to be top ~50 percent of the field to cash in cash games. In GPPs, I am imagining Felder will probably be over 50% owned. If he loses, that’s half of the area that is dead with no chance at winning 1st location.
Mike Perry on the other hand will probably be less than 20% owned, and maybe closer to 10% just because of the mispriced line. If Felder kills and loses off 50 percent of lineups, then you get a triumph using the low owned man to put you at a far better place of a solo 1st place win and maybe hitting that $30k. Perry has the power to KO anybody and Paul Felder is carrying this fight on short notice in a weight class above his branch. Can it truly shock you much if Perry could KO him? In GPPs, we’re interested in finding that boom or bust play and that is Mike Perry this week making him my GPP drama of the week.
Underdog drama of this week — Anthony Pettis ($7,600)
Anthony Pettis would have been a -500 favorite over Michael Chiesa if this struggle took place 5 years ago, but now we get a evaporating Pettis as a underdog and $1,000 less costly than Chiesa on DraftKings. I think Pettis can continue to keep this fight standing for most the struggle and that will give him a big edge. He’s also dangerous on the ground himself and when he’s taken I believe he will have the ability to get back up if he isn’t able to get a submission of his own. In case Pettis can acquire a determination then I presume he will pay off his DK cost and is going to be a fantastic underdog to utilize so you can save salary on your lineups. I may even see this battle ending from Pettis dropping Chiesa with a body kick and if that happens he will probably be on the winning lineup when he could make it happen in round 1.
Fade of this week — Rafael Assuncao ($9,100)
At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I really do think he wins the struggle, but I do not see him paying off that large price tag. He does not fight at a hefty rate and he hasn’t gotten a takedown in his past 4 wins as well as the ground is where he will have his biggest edge in this matchup. In those last 4 wins, Assuncao has not scored over 78 DK points and in his salary this week I want at least 91 points from him to pay that much. I’d rather pay up for the guys higher priced compared to Assuncao, or go down to Vannata or Miocic. I’ll have 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will probably be in 0 of them, making him my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 on this link below:
http://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks
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